Kudlow again

|
I know I've harped on his self-serving illustrations before, but I couldn't let this morning's Corner post pass:

Isn’t it funny that news reports this morning showing that Sen. Harry Reid will in fact allow a drill, drill, drill amendment to come to the Senate floor seem to have triggered a $3 drop in oil to less than $122 a barrel. Is this a coincidence? I don’t think so. More like cause-and-effect.

If I've ever heard a more fatuous analysis of the futures markets, I can't remember it. FYI, Larry, the oil price that you're referring to is for the front month contract that has a September 8, 2008 delivery date. So what you're claiming is that oil traders are dumping oil that is to be delivered in a little more than a month based on some possible legislation that might lead to an increased oil supply a few years down the road? Nevermind that the oil markets haven't been in contango since you Ivy types started getting the pension plans to 'invest' in commodities (badly, I might add).

Just to keep this in perspective, a 2.5% move in the oil markets is well within one standard deviation of the daily range. So this $3 drop Kudlow is swooning over can be entirely explained by normal daily fluctuation.

UPDATE: so now one day later, oil is back up more than three dollars. I wonder what Kudlow has to say about this...

1 comments:

Christopher said...

What a waste of carbon!