tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-25694876722098851762024-02-07T00:34:03.607-08:00Fortuna's Favor<i>Staying on the right side of the curve</i>CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.comBlogger289125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-21449393751113854652010-04-06T14:21:00.000-07:002010-04-06T14:21:05.787-07:00A very interesting (and pessimistic) take on the ongoing malaise <a href="http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2010/04/the-three-horsemen-of-the-global-depression.html">over at globalguerillas</a>. The links about the financial system problems are particularly recommended.CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-90119075818623864382010-03-12T08:58:00.000-08:002010-03-12T09:03:25.692-08:00a rational panicAs I've been saying for the last five years or so, buy real assets and get rid of your paper savings. This <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/article/192916-bernanke-s-dilemma-hyperinflation-and-the-u-s-dollar">terrific analysis on seekingalpha.com</a> goes into the structural issues in some detail. Key issue:<br />
<blockquote>...If users of a currency find that it loses value such that savings and wages are perceptibly eroded before they can be utilized at fair value, the rational course of action is to shed the currency as quickly as possible.<br />
<br />
This sparks a competition to shed currency in favor of real goods and, once the process begins, the rational course of action is to participate in the proverbial rush to the exits. Interestingly, a panic is not required to explain this phenomenon.</blockquote>CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-12149042570438074522010-02-03T18:02:00.000-08:002010-02-03T18:02:16.016-08:00I beg to differIn response to <a href="http://www.gormogons.com/2010/02/re-vote-or-die.html">this post</a> over at the Gormogons, I link to George Carlin's rebuttal:<br />
<br />
<object height="344" width="425"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/xIraCchPDhk&hl=en_US&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/xIraCchPDhk&hl=en_US&fs=1&" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-81934931662827953772009-12-21T12:58:00.000-08:002009-12-21T12:58:50.261-08:00The most unsurprising exposée of the decade<a href="http://www.sfweekly.com/2009-12-16/news/the-worst-run-big-city-in-the-u-s/">It's time to face facts: San Francisco is spectacularly mismanaged and arguably the worst-run big city in America</a>.<br />
<br />
Being the Cassandra that I am, there is some consolation in schadenfreude. San Francisco is one of my favorite locations on earth, but then so is Italy. Basic common sense in the political realm eludes both, probably for the same reason.CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-49465539986312666132009-12-18T16:43:00.000-08:002009-12-18T16:43:47.665-08:00Rummy does origami<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://i981.photobucket.com/albums/ae293/CounterClckWise/rummy.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i981.photobucket.com/albums/ae293/CounterClckWise/rummy.gif" /></a><br />
</div>CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-38858902169151035372009-11-05T14:32:00.000-08:002009-11-05T14:32:36.351-08:00Bifurcation of the culture<a href="http://roissy.wordpress.com/2009/11/03/the-omegas-among-us/">Read every word</a>. Excerpt:<br />
<blockquote>There was once a time when the lower ranks of society would admire the upper ranks, and work hard, however ineffectually, to acquire the habits and virtues of the upper classes on a journey of personal betterment. There was once a time when the upper ranks understood their duty to the lower ranks, and constrained themselves publicly in an act of <i>noblesse oblige,</i> to serve as example for their lessers. Today, that dynamic is destroyed. The losers know they’re losers, but they no longer give a shit. They wallow in their wretchedness like pigs in mud, sticking a porky hoof up the pinched sphincter of anyone who would encourage them otherwise. The winners know they’re winners, and despite their tissue-thin rhetoric to the contrary, know that it wasn’t hard work but the luck of the DNA draw that they aren’t rolling around in the sty with the pigs and who, if you get them behind closed doors and pry liberally with single malt scotch, secretly believe the left hand side of the bell curve barely even qualifies as members of the same human species. So now we have two groups, staring distantly at each other across the tar pit of our shredded national identity known as pop culture, who don’t give a shit about the other, and are feverishly living their lives to guarantee that a shit will never have to be given.<br />
If you think this is sustainable, you have only to sense the bubbling resentment surfacing not only in the urban jungle where resentment is the engine of self-delusion, but in once placid regions like small towns and college campuses, to know it is not. Soon, there will not be enough gated land behind which the elites can barricade themselves and continue peddling their hypocritical pissant platitudes. The orc hordes will swarm like locusts and devour everything in their path. Even the danegeld will lose its power to pacify, if for no other reason than that the source of funds will not keep up with the hungry multiplying maws of the beasts of chaos. If you feed it, they will come.<br />
</blockquote>CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-3419446006109098562009-10-30T09:43:00.001-07:002009-10-30T09:43:42.135-07:00<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://i981.photobucket.com/albums/ae293/CounterClckWise/Jaws1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://i981.photobucket.com/albums/ae293/CounterClckWise/Jaws1.gif" /></a><br />
</div>CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-45912842160770668642009-10-23T18:51:00.000-07:002009-10-23T18:51:59.759-07:00<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://i981.photobucket.com/albums/ae293/CounterClckWise/dogjumpsout.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="237" src="http://i981.photobucket.com/albums/ae293/CounterClckWise/dogjumpsout.gif" width="320" /></a><br />
</div><a href="http://s981.photobucket.com/albums/ae293/CounterClckWise/?action=view&current=dogjumpsout.gif"><br />
</a>CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-17292715238013991152009-10-21T09:44:00.000-07:002009-10-21T09:44:45.270-07:00<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://i981.photobucket.com/albums/ae293/CounterClckWise/conanandthekoolaidguy.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="168" src="http://i981.photobucket.com/albums/ae293/CounterClckWise/conanandthekoolaidguy.gif" width="400" /></a><br />
</div>CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-82382336832618054282009-10-20T12:34:00.000-07:002009-10-20T12:34:42.921-07:00Funny of the dayThis week I'll post a few of the absolutely hilarious .gifs that I saw over in <a href="http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/62/bbv4life/never-not-funny-237700/index4.html">this 2+2 thread</a>. Here's the first:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://s981.photobucket.com/albums/ae293/CounterClckWise/?action=view&current=burger_king_scare_3.gif" target="_blank"><img alt="Photobucket" border="0" src="http://i981.photobucket.com/albums/ae293/CounterClckWise/burger_king_scare_3.gif" /></a>CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-81572494891456337752009-10-14T23:37:00.000-07:002009-10-14T23:40:22.124-07:00Should Kids Get the Vote?Here's <a href="http://www.theamericanscene.com/2008/05/10/give-kids-the-vote">an interesting thought</a>:<br /><blockquote>The fact is that the way issues are debated in our national political debates very rarely actually takes the future into account. What’s better, to protect teachers’ jobs or to give kids a good education? What’s better, to avoid a recession today or to avoid inflation tomorrow? We seem to prefer instant to delayed gratification – how, well, childish, ain’t it? This situation exists largely because those who have the biggest stake in the future have no say.</blockquote><br />Since I think democracy is wrong in principle I guess this wouldn't make it any wronger and might even improve the system. It's likely, however, that it would simply substitute new absurdities for the current onesCCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-63136317217608765572009-10-12T16:50:00.001-07:002009-10-12T16:54:16.150-07:00Great quote......I was introduced to over at <a href="http://sipseystreetirregulars.blogspot.com/2009/10/message-from-pro-bono-publico-open.html">Sipsey Street Irregulars</a>, which is a blog I've been following for the last several months:<br /><blockquote><span style="font-weight:bold;">I believe that liberty is the only genuinely valuable thing that men have invented, at least in the field of government, in a thousand years. I believe that it is better to be free than to be not free, even when the former is dangerous and the latter safe. I believe that the finest qualities of man can flourish only in free air – that progress made under the shadow of the policeman's club is false progress, and of no permanent value. I believe that any man who takes the liberty of another into his keeping is bound to become a tyrant, and that any man who yields up his liberty, in however slight the measure, is bound to become a slave. -- H.L. Mencken</span></blockquote><br />Whichever Mencken book this is in, I must have missed it but I'll leave the attribution in without bothering to fact-check it for you.CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-66318099717138710922009-10-05T13:30:00.001-07:002009-10-05T16:37:22.355-07:00Political maxim #1Diversity, freedom, security: pick only two.CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-46732275415957487862009-07-31T18:38:00.000-07:002009-07-31T18:39:26.439-07:00Graphic illustrationsAll <a href="http://wildammo.com/2009/07/27/unusual-paintings-of-obama-naked-with-unicorns/">these paintings</a> are missing is marshmallow farts.CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-7618061729717279402009-05-05T10:19:00.000-07:002009-05-05T10:46:27.962-07:00Crony Finance and the stimulusHere's <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice">an interesting read </a>by Simon Johnson, the former head of the IMF, that compares the current problems on Wall Street with the problems that the IMF continually dealt with in the third world.<br /><br />The banking-and-securities industry has become one of the top contributors to political campaigns, but at the peak of its influence, it did not have to buy favors the way, for example, the tobacco companies or military contractors might have to. Instead, it benefited from the fact that Washington insiders already believed that large financial institutions and free-flowing capital markets were crucial to America’s position in the world.<br />One of those little peeves I've acquired over the last year is the continual confusion by pundits on both sides of the aisle between "capitalism" and "free markets" -- terms which are not interchangeable. Capitalism is a legal structure that enables capital to be pooled into a single legal entity. Free markets are simply free to the extent that they are unregulated. Capitalism can be a decidedly unfree system, as Washington is proving once again.CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-44894608269019809302009-01-17T09:53:00.001-08:002009-03-25T02:27:58.187-07:00Thanks for all the fishIt's been a bit slow around here for the last couple of months, so to the two or three of you that still check in regularly I offer my regrets that the blog has faded away so ignobly. I may start writing for you again later in the year but with my health being what it is, it's become more of a burden than a pleasure.<br /><br />UPDATE: Seems like <a href="http://www.fredoneverything.net/FOE_Frame_Column.htm">I ain't the only one hanging it up</a>. But I'm on FaceBook from time to time, so feel free to read me there...CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-91669466113088086412009-01-16T13:13:00.001-08:002009-01-16T13:16:18.377-08:00Next phase: wheelbarrows of cashHow fun is it for him to say<a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/01/stimulating_our_way_to_rock_bo.html"> I told you so</a>? I'll bet it's more fun than getting an additional couple of percentage points in his futile presidential bid.<br /><blockquote>We are at an economic dead-end and those in power are in denial. The truth is our economic problems are due to loose monetary policy, central economic planning, and the parasitic expenses of government.</blockquote>CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-33227057760222274942009-01-09T23:02:00.000-08:002009-01-09T23:03:51.605-08:00Reality is a parody<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123146363567166677.html?mod=googlenews_wsj">Here we go</a>:<br /><br /><blockquote>The current economic strategy is right out of "Atlas Shrugged": The more incompetent you are in business, the more handouts the politicians will bestow on you. That's the justification for the $2 trillion of subsidies doled out already to keep afloat distressed insurance companies, banks, Wall Street investment houses, and auto companies -- while standing next in line for their share of the booty are real-estate developers, the steel industry, chemical companies, airlines, ethanol producers, construction firms and even catfish farmers. With each successive bailout to "calm the markets," another trillion of national wealth is subsequently lost. Yet, as "Atlas" grimly foretold, we now treat the incompetent who wreck their companies as victims, while those resourceful business owners who manage to make a profit are portrayed as recipients of illegitimate "windfalls."</blockquote>CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-13649529757268237082009-01-05T21:22:00.001-08:002009-01-05T21:22:41.518-08:00Song of the Day<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/-XJ4qi-PeMs&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/-XJ4qi-PeMs&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-63074451685087437462009-01-05T14:07:00.000-08:002009-01-05T14:09:17.400-08:00Hello?In reference to this cogent quote, <a href="http://meganmcardle.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/12/is_buying_bonds_really_a_good.php">Megan says</a>:<br /><blockquote>How long 'til analysts start touting canned goods and ammunition?</blockquote><br />When they do, you'll know it's time to sell.CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-86767974884045294882008-12-30T04:04:00.000-08:002008-12-31T17:20:10.761-08:00Contemplations* Nock thinks that because there is a greater amount of literature (or content in our modern consumer parlance), the quality of all of it is hurt. I've always just imagined a normal distribution that gets larger -- meaning that the more stuff that exists, the more good stuff exists. Is blogging in the short-thought format actually a bad thing from the perspective of developing quality ideas and writing about them?<br /><br />* A lot of people I know find Vegas crass, shallow, and vulgar and want nothing to do with it. I find that sort of thing fascinating and entertaining. Our experience is the same but with completely different reactions. Not that they're wrong, but it's a part of humanity that I embrace rather than turn away from.<br /><br />* What is the foundation of ethics without Deity or natural rights? Most modern philosophy focuses on some kind of utilitarian model, but that leads to all sorts of lame-assedness and degradation. A more interesting foundation might be in Aristotelian virtue ethics, which no one has really dealt with since <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Aquinas">some monk</a> hung Divine Will around its neck a few centuries back. (If someone has, please let me know!)<br /><br />* Truth, Virtue, and all other sorts of Big Words are best understood as statistical realities. This is the main reason why Fortuna is so damn influential. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers">The Law of Large Numbers</a> is profoundly important, and failure to respect it leads to all sorts of errors, like the gambler's fallacy and belief in luck. The higher the number of trials, the closer the <span style="font-style:italic;">percentage</span> holds to the mean, but the <span style="font-style:italic;">absolute amount</span> of deviation from the mean <span style="font-weight:bold;">increases</span>. This is something Gladwell is on to in <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Outliers-Story-Success-Malcolm-Gladwell/dp/0316017922/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1230771410&sr=8-1">his latest book</a>.<br /><br />I'm in the middle of all sorts of life events right now, including moving to a new apartment in Henderson. I plan to come back to the bloggy thing in another week, but if I decide not to I'll let you know.CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-52231233744471919682008-12-25T14:00:00.000-08:002008-12-27T15:30:19.077-08:00GratitudeOn <a href="http://atwarwithluck.blogspot.com/2008/09/holiday-schedule-for-counterclkwise.html">the CounterClckWise calendar</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yule">Yule</a> is the holiday that marks the turn from one sun cycle to another, which we generally use as an excuse to hang out with the extended family, drink, and watch football. But it's also an end to one year and the beginning of another, so I can't help but reflect on the recent past and coming future and the import of it all. <br /><br />It was a really hard year for me in some ways, but in other ways it was maybe the best year of my life. My health has been pretty poor, but not as poor as the year before. I suffered some terrible bad beats in my situation, but I survived. I learned to be a little tougher. It was a year of gaining clarity. <br /><br />The best things that came out of this year were in my relationships with my friends and family. I was stunned to see the love and caring that came my way from so many people. It was a little overwhelming at times, even. I'm especially grateful to have gotten to know my Dad and Mom in Bozeman so much better. I love them both very much and I'm so proud to be a part of their family.<br /><br />It seems a little silly to me that I needed to face death to stop worrying about trivia and to see that the most important things were right in front of me all the time -- the people I love. Maybe I didn't exactly neglect them before, but I certainly didn't pay attention the way I do now. <br /><br />So on this semi-drunken Yule, I'm grateful to Fortuna for giving me the chance to see things from this perspective, that my friends are all doing pretty well, and that my family is closer than ever. I can't predict the future, but I think the things that happened this year will be the foundation for a phenomenal 2009. It is good to be alive.<br /><br /><blockquote>When you arise in the morning, think of what a precious privilege it is to be alive - to breathe, to think, to enjoy, to love. -- Marcus Aurelius </blockquote>CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-54188935909641359622008-12-23T13:45:00.000-08:002008-12-23T13:46:47.732-08:00GrádaI stumbled on this band a couple of years back at an Irish festival in Murphy's Camp, CA:<br /><br /><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/FPrNnmudDuk&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/FPrNnmudDuk&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-1368111529763828102008-12-23T04:20:00.000-08:002008-12-23T13:53:25.406-08:00creative destruction<a href="http://wanusmaximus.livejournal.com/1349204.html">Here's an example</a> of how fun it is when a creative sense of humor is combined with a healthy disrespect for The Law:<br /><blockquote>...students duplicate the license plates by printing plate numbers on glossy photo paper, using fonts from certain websites that "mimic" those on Maryland license plates. They tape the duplicate plate over the existing plate on the back of their car and purposefully speed through a speed camera, the parent said. The victim then receives a citation in the mail days later.</blockquote><br />I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot more of that kind of thing going around in the next decade, as the suits and crusaders in gov'ment decide to automate.<br /><br />UPDATE: Here's <a href="http://cdn.davesdaily.com/pictures/908-mischievous-aussies.jpg">another one from down under</a>.CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2569487672209885176.post-53747733418927021052008-12-22T23:22:00.000-08:002008-12-23T02:06:09.261-08:00Year-End DigestSaw <a href="http://munchkinwrangler.wordpress.com/2008/12/22/the-2008-munchkin-wrangler-digest/">Marko</a> do this first, but I thought it was pretty interesting so I'll follow his lead. It's cool to see how the year progresses through these brief snapshots. First post of the month and the first sentence is as follows:<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">April</span>:<span style="font-style:italic;"> First Post</span>. "Since I've been bugging youse with links and commentary via email for so long, I figured that it was time to ditch the '90s distribution model and let it all hang out here on teh IntarW3bs."<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">May</span>: <span style="font-style:italic;">Sig Sauer Mosquito</span> "When I realized that the price of ammo going up for the foreseeable future, I got in the market for a new .22 pistol to train with."<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">June</span>: <span style="font-style:italic;">On The Road Again</span> "So read the posts I'm sharing in the box over to the right."<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">July</span>: <span style="font-style:italic;">Not gonna do it</span> "Wouldn't be prudent."<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">August</span>: <span style="font-style:italic;">More company on the Dark Side</span> "What she said: If the States each had their own citizen militia and had to pay 'em, we'd see a lot less casual use, especially by the Federal level."<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">September</span>: <span style="font-style:italic;">IF</span> "If the sun weren't shinin'"<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">October</span>:<span style="font-style:italic;"> Interneccine squabbling </span>"There's a fun debate going on with my boys over on Culture11 about Sarah Palin."<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">November</span>: <span style="font-style:italic;">Showin' u the love</span> "It's not that I don't love you, my dear readers -- I really do."<br /><br /><span style="font-weight:bold;">December</span>: <span style="font-style:italic;">Been gone so long, it looks like back to me</span> "My hiatus from blogging is nearly done."CCWhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01587219217175769848noreply@blogger.com0